According to data from the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, the pig-to-feed ratio in the 1st week of May was 4.22, a decrease of 0.94% MoM. Based on current prices and costs, the projected average loss per pig in pig farming is estimated at 164.13 yuan/head (23.733 US$/head). This week, there has been intense competition between supply and demand, leading to frequent adjustments in pig prices. (1CNY=0.1446USD)
The impact of the May Day holiday has influenced consumer spending in popular domestic tourist cities, resulting in an increase in slaughterhouse operations. However, other players in the market continue to exert downward pressure on prices, while some breeding pig farms have reduced their hog sales at the beginning of this month. As a result, the supply side appears to be slightly tighter, and there is a strong inclination to resist price decreases. The hog market is currently influenced by multiple factors affecting the supply and demand dynamics.
As post-holiday consumption subsides and breeding pig farms return to their regular selling pace, it is anticipated that pig prices will exhibit a volatile downward trend in the short term, although occasional temporary rebounds cannot be ruled out. On average, prices are expected to experience a marginal decline compared to the previous period.
On May 5th, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that pig prices have been operating at a low level. Monitoring conducted by the commission revealed that, for the week of April 24th to April 28th, the national average pig-to-feed ratio stood at 5.21:1, indicating an excessive decline and triggering a second-level warning. According to the "Plan for Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism and Ensuring Pork Supply and Stable Prices," the National Development and Reform Commission, in collaboration with relevant departments, will consider initiating the procurement of the second batch of central frozen pork reserves within this year to facilitate a swift return of pig prices to a reasonable range. We will timely update the specific timeline for reserve bidding in the future.